Brexit Endgame: A Dog's Breakfast
All eyes are on the final announcement from the 11th-hour talks, in Brussels, over the finer details of the outstanding areas: Level Playing Field and Governance.
Our Currency Dealers' views:
A no-deal Brexit may have been a serious possibility six weeks ago - with serious consequences for the Good Friday Agreement. However, the world's geo-political realities fundamentally shifted after the election of Joe Biden and the Democrats' retainment of Congress. Joe Biden; House Speaker Nancy Pelosi; and the chairmen of four, separate - but powerful - Congressional Committees, that approve trade deals in the US; have publicly stated that they would not support a trade deal with the UK. In an increasingly tri-polar world, dominated by the EU, China and the US; the implications of this are that a no-deal outcome, would mean isolation for the UK - not just from the EU but from the US as well.
On the 24th of November, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that the economic impact of a no-deal would be "two to three times worse" than the Covid-19 pandemic.
On the basis of the above, our Currency Dealers believe that a no-deal outcome is less likely than a deal. However, the time frame of such an eventual deal is uncertain.
On the basis of the above, our Currency Dealers believe that a no-deal outcome is less likely than a deal. The tight time frame (of the negotiation; the time required for 27 parliamentary ratifications; and implementation) could result in an accidental no-deal/chaotic withdrawal. While our Currency Dealers favour a deal; a no-deal/chaotic withdrawal outcome - if it happens - is more likely to be a bump in the road towards an eventual deal, rather than a destination in itself. And the deal at the eventual destination will be far less superior to the full membership that the UK had. On this basis, therefore, any deal arrived at will be sub-optimal for both those in favour of Brexit and those against -the ultimate dog's breakfast scenario.
Finally, the currency implications for Sterling will swing in direct correlation with certainty - or lack thereof - in the days and weeks ahead.
To discuss how the above may affect your money transfer requirements, please contact your Currency Dealer at Heritage Pay on +44 (0) 207 117 2934.
None of the information in this article is, nor should be construed as, financial advice. All foreign exchange transactions involve risk and you should always seek your own independent financial advice before entering into any foreign exchange transaction.