Emerging Markets Update - In-Focus: Kenya, South Africa and Africa-wide

Africa-wide The G20 has agreed a US$100bn emergency package for Africa | Covid-19 could kill 300,000 people in Africa this year - even with lockdowns - according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa | Of the continent's 440 million jobs, up to150 million of them could be lost due to the pandemic, according to Mckinsey

Kenya

The Shilling has stabilised over the last week with inflows from NGO's supporting importer demand | President Kenyatta is seeking the suspension of debt repayments to China to conserve money to fight the pandemic | Meanwhile, economic growth could slow to as low as 1% this year, compared to 5.7% for 2019, according to National Treasury Secretary Ukur Yatani |It is unclear what the effect of the collapse of the global USD8.5bn flower industry will be on Kenya’s 100,000 direct workers and the further 2,000,000 workers in the supply chain

South Africa

The rand is at a near-20-yr low as investors digest global sentiment and domestic events | Moody’s are forecasting a 2.5% shrinkage to the economy in 2020 | The government is allowing mines to operate up to 50% of capacity as long as additional measures and controls are in place to detect and contain COVID-19 | The fate of South African Airways remains in the balance as the government has cut off funding to the airline which made a ZAR5.4 billion (USD $367 million) loss in its latest filings

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