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December 12, 2019

Sterling has rallied on expectations of a Boris Johnson win. The basic logic of this is that this outcome will untangle the Brexit logjam quickest - as opposed to a Labour win / hung parliament.

We see this untangling as only temporarily. That is because the so-c...

December 6, 2019

With only a few days to go before the UK general election, opinion polls still point to the likelihood of a Conservative majority. An exit poll will be available as soon as the polls close at 10pm on Thursday. This has generally been more reliable than pre-election pol...

November 29, 2019

Opinion polls move markets. Sometimes they are right, in predicting election outcomes. Sometimes they are wrong. For example, biases or errors in the selection of the sample size limit the usefulness of opinion polls as a predictive tool. 

This is why at Heritage P...

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