Who To Trust: The Honeybees, Or The IMF?

Honeybees can accurately forecast rain. When they know rain is coming, they work harder to compensate for the rainy periods - during which they can't fly to gather pollen. The IMF have done similar attempt and warned this week in their bi-annual global financial stability report about higher risks to the word's financial system this year. They are concerned about high debt levels of debt and unrealistically high assets as shown by the stock market indices - many of which have hit all time highs. It's such a shame then that the IMF's record of predicting recessions - especially the last global recession - is nowhere near as good as the honeybees'! Talking of predictions, week ahead brings som

Boom Before The Bust

Business activity and consumer confidence surveys are at multi-decade highs in the US, with labour market data extremely strong, while US stock markets hit all-time highs recently. Thus, the near-term outlook for the US economy looks very positive and this expansion seems set to become the longest on record next June. Nevertheless, it was somewhat surprising to hear Fed Chair Powell say that there’s no reason to think that this cycle cannot continue “effectively indefnitely”. The last guy to say this was a certain Gordon Brown in his "No more Boom and Bust" speech. That was almost exactly 10 years ago - and we're still laughing! Elsewhere, there is a busy UK release calendar in the week ahe

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